上海市购物中心的时空格局演化及影响因素

SPATIAL-TEMPORAL EVOLUTION AND INFLUENCING FACTOR ANALYSIS OF SHOPPING CENTERS IN SHANGHAI

基于网络数据和地理信息数据,运用空间分析法和条件Logit模型,分析了上海购物中心的时空格局演化特征及影响因素。研究表明:(1)上海购物中心的空间布局经历了四个发展阶段。观察期内,其空间分布的轴线均呈东北—西南走向,整体布局趋向均衡。(2)上海购物中心具有全域分散化与局域集聚化并存的演化特征。中、外环附近的购物中心密度逐步提升,区县、街道的空间差异不断缩小。在城市不同方位上,则形成了一个核心集聚区、四个次级集聚区的空间组织结构。(3)市场需求、地租成本、交通可达性、政策规划、集聚因素对购物中心布局具有显著影响。随着时间推移,休闲资源和政策规划的影响有所减弱,购物中心倾向于从集聚发展中获益。

At present, improving leisure functions has become the core content of urban construction. As an important part of urban leisure facilities, shopping center plays a crucial role in people’s pursuit of a better life. Based on the geographic information data and the data collected from Dianping.com, this paper uses spatial analysis methods and the conditional Logit model to explore the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics and the corresponding influencing factors in Shanghai. Several conclusions are drawn as follows. Firstly,the development process of shopping centers in Shanghai can be divided into 4 stages. In different periods,the axis direction of shopping centers’ distribution shows a northeast-southwest trend. As time goes by, the overall spatial distribution pattern of shopping centers tends to be balanced. Secondly, the characteristics of shopping centers’ spatial-temporal evolution show both "global decentralization" and "local area agglomeration". As far as global decentralization, shopping centers continue to diffuse toward the outer circle districts,and the density of shopping centers near the central and outer rings has gradually increased. Meanwhile, the statistical gap based on spatial units has gradually shrunk. Considering local area agglomeration, the spatial organization structure of one core aggregation area and four secondary aggregation areas has emerged. Thirdly, market demand, rent costs, transportation accessibility, policy planning, and agglomeration are the main factors that affect the distribution of shopping centers. However, the influencing degree of each factor varies with the development process. For example, since the market had not yet developed, policy planning was of great importance to the location selection of shopping centers during the steady increasing period. In the accelerated expansion period, leisure resources and policy planning had a significant positive impact on the shopping centers.