从中西医结合角度探讨心力衰竭在院死亡风险预测模型的构建

Exproration on Establishment of Prediction Model of Heart Failure In-Hospital Mortality by Integrating Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine

早期识别在院死亡风险高的心力衰竭(心衰)患者,通过应用更加积极的药物或手术等方式,可有效降低心衰患者死亡率,对提高医疗质量和医疗水平具有重要意义,亦符合疾病防治重心前移的要求。总结了心衰患者在院死亡相关的潜在危险因素和预测因子,梳理此模型的研究现状,依据古籍条文探讨中医因素(症状、体征、节气、五运六气)对于提升模型预测能力的重要性,并对比分析传统统计分析和人工智能方法构建此模型的优劣性,为心衰在院死亡中西医结合预测模型研究提供前期理论及方法学基础。

Active drug treatment or surgery after early identification of heart failure patients with high risk of death in hospital could reduce in-hospital mortality,which is of great value to improve medical quality and medical level,as well as meeting the requirements of disease prevention and control.The potential high-risk factors,predictors and models of patients with heart failure of high risk of death were summarized in this paper.According to related content in ancient texts,we have found out that factors of traditional Chinese medicine(such as symptoms,signs,solar terms and five elements’motion and six kinds of natural factors)also have a significant influence on improving the predictive ability of the model.We also compared the strengths and weaknesses between traditional statistical analysis and artificial intelligence methods for establishing this model.This assay provided the fundamentals of theory and methodology for later related researches.