家庭部门去杠杆对经济增长的影响——动态效应与异质性分析

The Impact of Household Sector Deleveraging on Economic Growth——Dynamic Effect and Heterogeneity Analysis

本文基于跨国面板数据实证研究家庭部门去杠杆对经济增长的动态影响及作用机制,在此基础上,从收入不平等角度揭示上述影响的异质性。研究发现:第一,整体上,家庭部门去杠杆在短期内会显著抑制经济增长,但随着时间的推移家庭部门去杠杆对经济增长逐渐表现出促进效应;第二,家庭部门去杠杆主要通过影响家庭消费增长作用于经济增长;第三,经济体收入不平等程度的增加会放大家庭部门去杠杆对短期经济增长的抑制作用。

Based on the transnational panel data,this paper empirically researches the dynamic impact of household sec-tor deleveraging on economic growth and its mechanism,and reveals the heterogeneity of the impact from the perspective of income inequality.The results of the research show that,first,on the whole the household sector deleveraging will signif-icantly inhibit economic growth in the short term,but over time it will gradually promote economic growth;second,the household sector deleveraging mainly affects economic growth by influencing household consumption growth;third,the increase of income inequality in the economy will magnify the inhibiting effect of household sector deleveraging on short-term eco-nomicgrowth.