融资约束、不确定性与企业投资结构——基于面板门槛回归模型的实证检验

Financial Constraint,Uncertainty,and Firm Investment Structure:An Empirical Test Based on a Panel Threshold Regression Model

以2008—2017年中国沪深A股上市制造业企业面板数据为研究对象,通过面板门限回归模型,实证考察融资约束与企业投资结构之间的非线性关系,研究表明:融资约束与企业投资结构决策之间存在显著的单一门限效应,适度的不确定性不会引起融资约束预期明显变化,企业投资结构保持稳定。但当不确定性大于门限值时,企业存在跨期融资约束预期,进而激发其预防性储蓄动机,导致投资结构发生扭曲,向高流动性金融资产偏移。异质性分析发现,不确定性较低时,高调整成本及高投资机会的企业修正流动性结构向高调整成本的固定资产偏移,表现出平滑效应。以上结论从企业投资结构变化视角为推进实体经济高质量发展、完善企业融资环境提供政策参考。

Based on the panel data of A-share listed manufacturing firms in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2008 to 2017 used as the research sample,this study empirically examined the non-linear relationship between financing constraint and firm investment structure using a panel threshold regression model.The findings showed that there was a significant single threshold effect between financing constraint and investment decision-making among firms,while moderate uncertainty did not cause a significant change in financing constraint expectation and the firm investment structure remained stable.However,when uncertainty is greater than the threshold value,firms have intertemporal financing constraint expectations,which stimulate their precautionary saving motives,thereby leading to a shift in investment structure to highly liquid financial assets.Heterogeneity analysis revealed that when uncertainty is low,firms with high adjustment costs and great investment opportunities shifted their liquidity structure to fixed assets with high adjustment costs,exhibiting a smoothing effect.These conclusions provide policy references to advance high-quality development of the real economy and improve the financing environment for firms from the viewpoint of change in firm investment structure.