青藏高原东部地区人体棘球蚴病流行影响因素的空间回归分析

Spatial regression analysis on the influencing factors of echinococcosis prevalence in eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

目的研究青藏高原东部地区人体棘球蚴病流行与环境、生物和社会经济因素之间的关系,为优化棘球蚴病防控策略提供科学依据。方法收集2020年青藏高原东部地区30个县/市棘球蚴病患者数据及环境、生物、社会经济因素资料,计算人群棘球蚴病患病率和相关因素指标并进行空间回归分析。结果以人群棘球蚴病患病率作为因变量,各影响因素为自变量进行空间回归分析,其中普通二乘回归模型法显示模型残差具有空间自相关性(Moran’s I=0.069,P<0.05);选择空间滞后模型进行拟合,空间回归系数有统计学意义(ρ=0.490,P<0.05),拟合优度良好。模型拟合分析显示,当地人群棘球蚴病患病率与牧草地面积占比、家畜患病率及犬棘球绦虫粪抗原阳性率呈正相关,且回归系数差异均有统计学意义(均P<0.05)。结论青藏高原东部地区人体棘球蚴病流行与环境、生物和社会经济因素等有关,牧草地面积占比、家畜患病率、犬棘球绦虫粪抗原阳性率是棘球蚴病流行的重要影响因素。采用空间回归模型分析人体棘球蚴病流行及其影响因素的效果优于传统回归模型。

Objective To explore the relationship between the prevalence of human echinococcosis and the influencing factors in the eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,so as to provide scientific evidence for improving the echinococcosis control.Methods the data ofhuman echinococcosis and the environmental,biological and socioeconomic factors in 30 counties in the eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in 2020 were collected to obtain the prevalence of echinococcosis and to fit the spatial regression models.Results The prevalence of population echinococcosis was used as the dependent variable and the influencing factors were used as independent variables for spatial regression analysis.The ordinary linear regression model showed that the residuals were autocorrelated(Moran’s I=0.069,P=0.037)and the spatial regression was necessary.The spatial lag model was selected according to the results obtained by Lagrange multiplier statistics(LM-lag,t=7.125,P<0.05;Robust LM-lag,t=9.191,P<0.05).The spatial parameterρof spatial lag model was significant(ρ=0.490,P<0.05)and the prevalence rate of echinococcosis were positively correlated with the proportion of pasture,the prevalence rate of livestock,and the positive rate of canine Echinococcus(all P<0.05).Conclusion When explore the relationship between the factors and echinococcosis,the results derived from spatial regression models are superior to classical regression models.The major factors which affect echinococcosis are the proportion of pasture,the prevalence rate of livestock,and the positive rate of canine Echinococcus.