我国口岸城市呼吸道传染病多源数据预警综合指标体系建立

Establishment of a multi-source data comprehensive index system for early warning of respiratory infectious diseases in port cities in China

目的 根据我国口岸城市呼吸道传染病流行的特征,构建我国口岸城市呼吸道传染病多源数据预警指标体系。方法 采用德尔菲法对16名从事疾病预防控制、监测和预警理论及实践工作不少于10年且具有副高以上职称的专家进行专家咨询,要求专家从重要性、敏感性、可得性和是否纳入4个方面对指标进行评分,并以此作为指标筛选的依据,同时结合专家权威系数和评分结果,计算指标体系各级指标的权重。结果 以新型冠状病毒肺炎为代表的专家学术水平、判断系数和熟悉程度均> 0.7,专家咨询协调系数为0.321。建立的我国口岸城市呼吸道传染病多源数据预警综合指标体系有3个一级指标、7个二级指标和19个三级指标构成。结论 应用德尔菲法构建“我国口岸城市呼吸道传染病多源数据预警综合指标体系”具有一定的科学性和合理性,该指标体系的建立为提升我国突发公共卫生事件监测预警能力提供了参考依据。

Objective To construct a multi-source data index system for early warning of respiratory infectious diseases in port cities in China based on regional epidemic characteristics of the diseases. Methods The framework and elementary indicators of the index system were designated and modified through literature studies and group discussion/in depth interview among 10 senior professionals. Then, an onsite Delphi consultation was conducted among 16 domestic experts with at least 10 years′ experiences in the prevention/control, surveillance and early warning of infectious disease to assess the importance, sensitivity, availability and inclusion of the indicators. The indicators were finally selected based on the experts′evaluation and the weight of the indicators were calculated combined with expert authority coefficients. Results The scores for the experts′ academic level, judgment coefficient and familiarity are all greater than 0.7 in terms of first-class indexes.The coordination coefficient is 0.321 for the experts′ scoring on the 28 indicators of the index system. The established multisource data comprehensive index system of early warning consists of 3 first-, 7 second-and 19 third-class indexes.Conclusion For early warning of respiratory infectious diseases in port cities in China, the established multi-source data comprehensive index system is of scientificity and rationality and may provide a reference for promoting the ability of monitoring and early warning of public health emergencies.