计及碳收益的光伏发电平价上网可行性研究

Feasibility Analysis of Photovoltaic Power to Grid Parity with Carbon Revenues

近年来,我国光伏发电在能源消费中占比和电量贡献不断增大,光伏发电成本与燃煤发电成本差距不断缩小,光伏发电正逐渐从依靠补贴向竞价、平价转变。以往光伏发电项目经济性分析并未考虑碳收益,导致部分项目收益偏低,无法实现平价上网。因此,有必要针对计及碳收益的光伏发电经济性进行分析,以判断其平价上网的可行性。本文通过计算不同地区光伏电站首年发电小时数,结合光伏组件衰减率逐年计算得到光伏电站全生命周期发电小时数,反推出未计及碳收益时的各地区最低上网电价。并建立光伏发电碳收益模型,反推出计及碳收益时的各地区最低上网电价。结果表明:未计及碳收益时,全国有17个地区,即超半数地区光伏项目无法实现平价上网;计及碳收益时,仅有5个地区无法实现平价上网,碳收益可显著增加光伏发电项目收益。基于此,应加大研发投入、动态调整补贴及电价政策、出台新能源发电碳减排交易政策的建议。

In recent years, the proportion of photovoltaic power in energy consumption has been increasing, and the cost of photovoltaic power generation is closed to that of coal-fired power generation. As a result, the photovoltaic power generation is gradually shifting from subsidies to auction and parity. In the past, the economic analysis of photovoltaic power generation did not consider the carbon revenues,resulting in low IRR and grid parity impossible. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the economics of photovoltaic power generation with carbon revenues in order to estimate the feasibility of grid parity. This paper calculates the first-year power generation hours of photovoltaic power stations in different regions, and the whole life cycle power generation hours are calculated year by year in combination with the degradation of photovoltaic modules, and the minimum on-grid prices without carbon revenues are deduced. Then the carbon revenues model of photovoltaic power generation is established, and the minimum on-grid prices with carbon revenues are deduced. The results show that when carbon benefits are not included, there are 17 regions in China, that is, more than half of the regions cannot achieve grid parity. In contrast, there are only 5 regions cannot achieve grid parity with carbon revenues. Carbon revenues can significantly increase the benefits of photovoltaic power stations. Based on this, this paper puts forward suggestions to increase R&D investment, dynamically adjusts subsidy and power price, and introduces carbon emission reduction trading policy for green energy generation.