阿根廷当前恶性通胀问题研究

Research on the Current Hyperinflation Problem in Argentina

2020年国际大宗商品价格上涨以来,阿根廷国内持续面临恶性通胀压力。当前,阿根廷国内通胀已达到历史上较高的水平,并且阿根廷也是全球范围内少数仍存在恶性通胀问题的经济大国。就恶性通胀卷土重来的原因而言,国际大宗商品价格大幅上涨是直接原因,阿根廷国内持续宽松的货币政策以及脆弱的通胀预期是重要助推剂。从当前导致阿根廷恶性通胀的根源来看,价格稳定并非阿根廷央行的首要目标、反通胀制度性改革的失败、临时性反通胀政策有限的作用以及国际救助协议难以解决国内长期结构性难题等因素,使阿根廷央行在应对国内恶性通胀问题时面临极大挑战。对新兴经济体而言,在保持经济对外开放过程中需警惕出现“汇率—通胀”螺旋,重视外汇管理政策在防范输入性通胀中的作用,并在产业结构和金融体系方面保持适当的独立性。

Since international commodity prices began to rise in 2020, Argentina has continued to face hyperinflationary pressures. At present, Argentina’s domestic inflation has reached a historically high level, and Argentina is also one of the few major economies in the world that still suffers from hyperinflation. As far as the reasons for the resurgence of hyperinflation are concerned, the sharp rise in international commodity prices is the direct cause. Argentina’s continued loose monetary policy and fragile inflation expectations are important boosters. From the current root cause of Argentina’s hyperinflation, price stability is not the primary goal of the Argentine central bank. The failure of the anti-inflation system reform, the limited effect of the temporary anti-inflation policy, and the inability of the international rescue agreement to solve the domestic long-term structural problems have made the Argentine central bank face great challenges in dealing with the domestic hyperinflation problem. For emerging economies, in the process of keeping the economy open to the outside world, it is necessary to be alert to the emergence of the "exchange rate-inflation" spiral, pay attention to the role of foreign exchange management policies in preventing imported inflation, and maintain appropriate independence in terms of industrial structure and financial system.