关于当前全球大宗商品储备调整的新变化及其潜在影响研究

Research on The New Changes and Potential Impact of Current Global Commodity Reserve Adjustment

世纪疫情叠加俄乌地缘冲突扰动,全球生产性资源供应裂痕严重,建立大宗商品充足储备正当其时。具备一定规模的大宗商品库存储备有助于缓解供给冲击,保障供应链、生产链安全运行。近期,全球范围内扩充大宗商品储备的事件已经屡见不鲜,如欧盟囤积大量天然气、美国寻求海外原油补充、印度扩充工业用煤需求以及中国加大农产品战略储备等。考虑到当前全球产业链、供应链尚不稳固,未来大宗商品储备需求或迎来快速增长期,并可能在一定程度上冲击对传统外汇储备(美国国债和七国集团其他成员国债权)的需求,促使国际资本循环发生变化。因此,有必要密切关注当前全球大宗商品储备的倾向变动及其内在的动因和影响,并据此提出相关政策建议。

Under the disturbance of the COVID-19 epidemic and the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine,the global supply of productive raw materials is seriously damaged,and it is timely to establish a bulk commodity reserve.A certain scale of bulk commodity reserves can help reduce supply shocks and ensure the safe operation of supply chains and production chains.There have been many recent stories of the world starting to build up its reserves of commodities,such as the European Union piling up gas,the U.S.seeking to replenish crude oil overseas,India expanding its demand for industrial coal and China building up its strategic reserves of agricultural products.Given the fragility of the current global production chain,demand for commodity reserves may see a period of rapid growth in the future and may displace demand for traditional foreign exchange reserves(U.S.Treasury bonds and bonds of other G7 countries).Therefore,it is necessary to pay attention to the current tendency of global reserve of commodities and its internal causes and effects,and accordingly put forward relevant policy recommendations.