我国城乡居民消费结构演化趋势研究——基于β趋同视角的分析

Research on the Evolutionary Trend of Urban and Rural Residents’ Consumption Structure——Based on the β Convergence Perspective

促进居民消费结构升级有助于充分发挥消费对经济高质量发展的支撑作用。本文基于β趋同理论视角,构建与应用MS(M)-AR(p)模型分析城乡居民消费结构的动态演化轨迹,识别其中的趋同性和非线性特征。通过研究发现:城乡居民消费结构逐渐升级的同时,两者差距逐渐缩小,呈现趋同升级特征;具体消费支出趋同升级的动态过程可以划分为“趋同”“趋异”和“稳定”三种转移区制;多数消费项目支出在“趋同区制”中的趋同强度相对较大,城乡居民消费结构的演化路径具有趋同与趋异的非对称性;城乡居民消费结构的区制转移体现了收入水平、消费倾向等因素影响的阶段性变化。提高城乡居民收入水平、提高城乡居民消费倾向,是促进消费结构趋同和生活水平趋同的必要途径。

Based on the perspective ofβconvergence theory,this paper constructs and applies MS(M)-AR(p)model to study the nonlinear convergence evolution process and characteristics of consumption structure of urban and rural residents in China.The evolution process of consumption structure of urban and rural residents continues to show transformation characteristics and upgrading from survival type to development type.The convergent change path of expenditure of different consumption items has the characteristics of nonlinear regime switching.The convergence intensity of most consumption items in the"convergence regime"is larger,and the evolution path of consumption structure of urban and rural residents has the asymmetry of convergence and divergence.Consumption propensity and other factors have a significant impact on the nonlinear change of the convergence path of consumption structure of urban and rural residents.Raising the income level of urban and rural residents and improving the consumption propensity of urban and rural residents is a necessary way to promote the convergence of consumption structure and living standards.