PMI指数与物价水平的相关性研究

Study on the Correlation between PMI Index and Price Level

居民消费价格指数(CPI)和采购经理人指数(PMI)在一定时期内的变动对政策调控产生重要影响,因此需进行科学预测。本文采用两类生产采购经理指数,通过构建VAR时间序列模型,研究两类PMI指数与价格水平的相关性。结果表明:制造业PMI和非制造业PMI与物价指数直接相关。CPI与制造业PMI的波动具有较强的相关性,后者增加1%将使CPI增加0.17%,同样地,CPI也与非制造业PMI具有一定相关性,但效果较弱,后者增加1%将促使LNCPI降低0.06%。同时,脉冲响应的结果表明:经过大约4-5个月的跳空后,PMI的变化才对价格水平产生显著影响。基于此,应优化相关价格评估指标体系,加强通胀预期管理,更好地发挥保供稳价作用。

Changes in consumer price index(CPI)and purchasing manager index(PMI)in a certain period have an important impact on policy regulation,so scientific prediction is needed.In this paper,we use two kinds of PMI index to study the correlation between the two kinds of PMI index and the price level by constructing a VAR time series model.The results show that the manufacturing PMI and non manufacturing PMI are directly related to the price index.CPI has a strong correlation with the fluctuation of manufacturing PMI.A 1%increase in the latter will increase CPI by 0.17%.Similarly,CPI has a certain correlation with non manufacturing PMI,but the effect is weak.A 1%increase in the latter will reduce LNCPI by 0.06%.At the same time,the results of impulse response show that the change of PMI has a significant impact on the price level after about 4-5 months of gap jumping.Based on this,we should optimize the relevant price evaluation index system,strengthen the management of inflation expectations,and play a better role in ensuring supply and stabilizing prices.