长江经济带包容性绿色发展的测度评价、动态分布与收敛趋势

Measurement Evaluation,Dynamic Distribution and Convergent Tendency of the Inclusive Green Development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

基于2001—2019年长江经济带11个省份的面板数据,运用定基极差熵权法测度评价长江经济带包容性绿色发展效率,运用核密度估计、泰尔指数和收敛模型分别考察包容性绿色发展的动态分布、地区差异和收敛趋势。研究表明,长江经济带包容性绿色发展效率呈现明显增长趋势,子系统效率呈现“经济发展>社会机会公平>绿色生产消费>生态环境保护”的分布格局;三大地区包容性绿色发展效率均为递增态势,呈现“下游>上游>中游”的分布特征;包容性绿色发展的非均衡性突出,但未发生两极分化;包容性绿色发展的总体差异呈现下降趋势,地区间差异是其主要来源;长江经济带及三大地区包容性绿色发展存在收敛和绝对收敛趋势;长江经济带及上游和下游地区存在条件收敛趋势,中游地区为发散特征。

Based on the panel data of 11 provinces in the Yangtze River Economic Belt(YREB)from 2001 to 2019,this paper measures and evaluates the inclusive green development efficiency of the YREB by employing the fixed base difference entropy weight method.And it also investigates the dynamic distribution,regional difference and convergent tendency of the inclusive green development byadopting kernel density estimation,Theil index and convergent model.The results reveal that the inclusive green development efficiency of the YREB shows an obvious growth trend,and that the efficiency of each subsystem presents the distribution pattern of“economic development>social opportunity equity>green production and consumption>ecological environment protection”.The inclusive green development efficiency in the three regions shows a trend of progressive increase,presenting a distribution characteristic of“downstream>upstream>midstream”.The imbalance of the inclusive green development is prominent,but there is no polarization trend.The overall difference of the inclusive green development shows a downward trend,and the regional differences are the main source.The inclusive green development of the YREB and the three regions have the trend of convergence and absoluteconvergence.There is a trend of conditionalconvergence in the YREB and its upper and lower reaches,while the middle reaches are characterized by divergence.