户籍城镇化对生育意愿的影响研究——基于CGSS2017数据的实证检验

A Study on the Impact of Household Registration Urbanization on Fertility Intention:An Empirical Test Based on CGSS2017 Data

中国生育水平已经低于国际警戒线,未来一段时期可能面临较为严峻的人口形势。在构建机理模型基础上,采用中国综合社会调查(CGSS)2017年微观数据对户籍城镇化与生育意愿的关系进行实证检验。利用二值选择模型和多项logit模型,探究户籍城镇化对生育意愿的影响。实证结果表明:城镇居民相对农村居民具有更低的生育意愿,且城镇居民对于生育多胎的意愿呈现递减趋势。分组回归结果显示,户籍城镇化对中高育龄群体、低收入群体以及东部地区的整体影响较为显著。就地城镇化与异地城镇化下的收入水平增加均能有效提高生育水平,社会保障对于生育造成的“挤出效应”主要体现在异地城镇化的发展模式下相对显著。上述结论为评估城镇化对生育意愿的影响提供了数据支撑和分析视角,也为探寻三孩生育政策与收入、教育、住房相关配套支持措施相结合,提高民众生育意愿的现实路径提供了政策参考。

China’s fertility level has been lower than the international warning line;the future period may be faced with a more severe population situation.Based on the construction of the mechanism model,this paper conducts an empirical test on the relationship between the relationship between household registration urbanization and fertility intentionby employing the micro data of China General Social Survey(CGSS)in 2017.It makes use of the binary selection model and the multinomial logit model to explore the impact of household registration urbanization on fertility intention.The empirical results show that urban residents have a lower willingness to have children than rural residents,and the willingness of urban residents to have multiple children shows a decreasing trend.The group regression results show that the overall impact of household registration urbanization on middle and high childbearing age groups,low-income groups and the eastern region is more significant.The improvement of the income level under both the local urbanization and the urbanization in different places can effectively improve the fertility level.The“crowding out effect”caused by social security on fertility is mainly reflected in the relatively significant development mode of the urbanization in different places.The above conclusions provide data support and analytical perspective for assessing the impact of urbanization on fertility intention,and also provide policy reference for exploring the realistic path of improving people’s fertility intention by combining the three-child policy with supporting measures related to income,education and housing.