港城脱钩的可能性机理与实际估测——以环渤海港口城市为例

The Possibility Mechanism and Actual Estimation of Decoupling Between Port and City:Taking Port Cities of Bohai Rim as an Example

在探讨城市发展是否可能与港口运营脱钩的理论探索的基础上,采用Tapio脱钩模型进行估测,构建了包括产业多样化指标的港口及城市评价体系,以2000—2019年环渤海地区12个主要港口城市为样本,实证检验港城脱钩类型。研究发现:尽管大部分港口城市的脱钩状态时常变化,但港城脱钩确实可能成为港口城市的演化路径,其过程是渐进的。港城脱钩的影响因素主要有城市发展阶段、产业多样化等,港口运营与本地经济一直未能深入融合的城市以及经济实力雄厚、发展路径多样的中心城市实现港城脱钩的难度相对较小。在环渤海案例区,丹东和秦皇岛已处于港城脱钩状态,天津和青岛未来出现港城脱钩的潜力较大,大连的港城关系演化尚不稳定,唐山、营口、日照等多数样本的港城关联仍然密切、脱钩可能性较小。

Due to multiple conflicts derived from differences in objectives, port-city relations are no longer just a single situation of simultaneous rise and fall. Economic connection and spatial symbiosis are the basic support of the relationship between port and city, and with the transformation of urban industrial path and the migration of ports to open sea space, whether it is possible for urban development to break away from the dependence on port operation after entering a certain stage deserves special research. Therefore, the concept of port city decoupling was put forward for the first time, and the influencing factors and realization conditions of port city decoupling were revealed. Based on the theoretical exploration on the possibility of decoupling between city development and port operation, Tapio decoupling model was adopted to estimate the specific status. The evaluation systems of port and city were structured including the index of industrial diversification,the twelve samples of the main port cities of Bohai rim were selected to test the decoupling type empirically.The research shows that although the decoupling status of most port cities often change, the decoupling between port and city really become the impossible evolution path. Observed from the delineation and distribution of decoupling status of port cities around the Bohai Sea, the pattern shows alternating fluctuations of various types on the whole, and this is in line with the characteristics and facts of port city heterogeneity. Even if the decoupling between port city development and port operation become a reality, the course will be gradual.The influence factors of decoupling between port and city includes the development stage of port city, open economy level, industrial diversification, etc. The difficulty of decoupling is relatively small for two types of port cities, one is cities where port operation and local economy have not been deeply integrated, the other is central cities with strong economic strength and diversified development paths. According to the individual estimation of the dynamic possibility of port city decoupling in the case area around the Bohai Sea, Dandong and Qinhuangdao are already in decoupled state. There is a great potential for Tianjin and Qingdao to decoupling in the future, but the evolution of port city relationship in Dalian is not stable. The port city correlation of most samples such as Tangshan, Yingkou and Rizhao is still close, these cities are less likely to be decoupled. Most port cities will continue to explore between close dependence and alienation. At the policy level, it is necessary to regularly monitor the development status and trend of port cities.