碳中和目标下风电消纳量的影响因素分析

ANALYSIS OF INFLUENCING FACTORS OF WIND POWER UTILIZATION UNDER CARBON NEUTRAL TARGET

分别从风电产量、需求量、政策、硬件配套4个方面选取8项指标,通过多元回归分析和聚类分析法对全国31个省(市、自治区)年风电消纳情况进行定量分析。结果表明:电价是影响消纳的最主要因素,其次政策、配套设施也有较大影响;聚类分析中第3类地区风电消纳整体情况最优,主要体现在风资源情况、政策导向及电网配套方面。据此探讨未来风电消纳提升路径,并提出相应建议及措施:完善政策与制度支持,加快细节性政策的落实和制定;健全碳市场与可再生能源电力市场交易制度及交易体系,利用电价调控市场影响消纳;加强电网等配套设施建设。

The article selects 8 indicators from 4 aspects of wind power generation,power demand,policy,and hardware support respectively,and quantitatively analyzes the electric power utilization of wind power in 31 provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions)through multiple regression analysis and cluster analysis method. The results show that:Tariff is the most important factor affecting electric power utilization,followed by policies and hardware support respectively;The overall situation of wind power utilization in the third category of the cluster analysis is the best. This is mainly reflected in the wind resource situation,policy guidance and grid support. Accordingly,the future electric power utilization of wind power enhancement path is discussed,and corresponding suggestions and measures are put forward. Improve the policy and system support,accelerate the implementation and development of detailed policies;Improve the carbon emissions trading market,the renewable energy power trading market system,and use the electricity price to control the market to influence consumption;Strengthen the construction of power grid and other supporting facilities.