美国导弹预警系统作战效能评估指标体系设计研究

Research on Design of Operational Effectiveness Evaluation Index System of American Missile Early Warning System

导弹预警系统是导弹防御体系的重要组成部分,文中从美国导弹预警系统的作战流程出发,梳理了影响导弹预警作战效能的主要因素,并分别从作战能力、作战效果和作战适宜性三个方面建立作战效能评估指标体系,提出了基于效度系数的指标体系有效性检验方法,结果显示指标体系合理有效。文中分别针对定性指标和定量指标提出了评估方法,并以预警探测能力指标为例,运用层次分析法计算得到指标体系各指标项权重。所建立的评估指标体系系统、全面,可为后续开展效能评估提供指导依据。

The missile early warning system is an important part of missile defense system. Starting from the operational process of the US missile early warning system, this paper combs the main factors affecting the operational effectiveness of missile early warning, and decomposes the indicators from three aspects of operational capability, operational effect and operational suitability to obtain the evaluation index system. The validity of the index system is tested based on the validity coefficient model, and the results show that the index system is reasonable and effective. The evaluation methods are proposed for qualitative and quantitative indicators respectively. Taking the early warning detection capability indicators as an example, the weights of each indicator item of the indicator system are calculated by using the analytic hierarchy process. The established evaluation index system is systematic and comprehensive, which can provide guidance for the follow-up performance evaluation.