基于系统动力学的VOCs危害程度评价研究

Study on hazard assessment of VOCs based on system dynamic

为有效监管VOCs危害,防止危害发展,以A市2013—2025年VOCs危害程度为研究对象,提出基于系统动力学的VOCs危害程度评价方法。根据VOCs危害对象的类型,建立大气环境子系统、地表自然生态环境子系统和人体健康子系统的系统动力学模型,研究VOCs导致这3个子系统经济损失数额,衡量VOCs危害程度。结果表明:A市VOCs危害在2013—2016年为较严重等级,2017—2021年为严重等级,2022年达到极严重等级,并持续到2025年甚至更长时间。该模型适用于一定时间序列VOCs危害程度的定量计算,有助于了解VOCs对环境和人体健康造成的危害。

In order to effectively monitor the VOCs hazard status and prevent the development of hazards,a VOCs hazard assessment method based on system dynamics was proposed. According to the types of VOCs hazard objects,the system dynamics models of atmospheric environment subsystem,surface natural ecological environment subsystem and human health subsystem were established,and the economic losses of the three subsystems caused by VOCs were used to measure the degree of VOCs hazard. In the case study,the VOCs hazard degree of city A from 2013 to 2025 was evaluated and predicted,and it was found that the VOCs hazard of city A was relatively serious from 2013 to 2016,serious from 2017 to 2021,and very serious in 2022,and it would last until 2025 or even longer. The results showed that the model was suitable for quantitative calculation of VOCs hazard degree in a certain time series,and it was helpful to understand the harmful consequences of VOCs on the environment and human health.