黄河流域旅游经济时空异质性特征及演变趋势

The characteristics of spatial and temporal heterogeneity of tourism economy in the Yellow River Basin and its evolutionary trend

以黄河流域9省区为研究对象,运用标准差、基尼系数、碎化指数、地理集中指数、泰尔指数等方法分析2006—2021年黄河流域旅游经济时空异质性特征,并用R/S法探索其时空异质性演进趋势。结果显示:黄河流域旅游经济绝对差异前期逐年拉大,后期波动明显,而相对差异前期则逐年缩小,后期有扩大趋势;空间分布前期由集中趋向分散,后期受疫情影响有集中趋势,集聚程度一直很高;上中下游间(区间)差异明显大于上中下游内(区内)差异,两者变化趋势一致;上中下游间(区间)差异对总差异贡献较大且呈下降趋势,上中下游内(区内)差异对总差异贡献相对较小且呈上升趋势。在现有条件下流域内旅游经济差异总体呈逐年缩小趋势,且具有较强的持久性;受新冠疫情影响,2022—2027年流域内旅游经济差距将会拉大,且复杂多变,极不规则,具有较强的反持久性;2028—2037年流域内旅游经济差距将会逐年缩小,演变趋势比较规则,且具有较强的持久性。

This paper analyzed the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of tourism economy in the Yellow River Basin from 2006 to 2021 with the methods of standard deviation,Gini coefficient,Fragmentation index,Geographical concentration index and Theil index,and explored its evolution trend with the method of R/S. The results showed that the absolute difference of tourism economy increased year by year in the early stage and fluctuated significantly in the late stage,but the relative difference decreased year by year in the early stage and tended to expand in the later stage in the Yellow River Basin. The spatial distribution of tourism economy tended to disperse from concentration in the early stage and tended to concentrate in the later stage due to the impact of COVID-19,but the degree of concentration was very high in the Yellow River Basin. The difference of tourism economy between the upper,middle,and lower reaches was significantly greater than that within the upper,middle,and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin,and the fluctuation trend was consistent between the upper,middle,and lower reaches and within the upper,middle,and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin. The difference between the upper,middle and lower reaches contributed much more to the overall difference than that within the upper,middle,and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin,but the contribution of the difference within the upper,middle,and lower reached of the Yellow River Basin to the overall difference increased significantly. Under the existing conditions,the tourism economic difference in the Yellow River Basin was generally decreasing year by year,and had strong persistence. Affected by the COVID-19,the complex and changeable tourism economic gap in the Yellow River Basin would widen from 2022 to 2027,with strong anti-persistence. From 2028 to 2037,the tourism economic gap in the Yellow River Basin would be narrowed year by year and its evolution trend was regular and had strong persistence.