我国物流产业发展对经济增长和产业结构的时变影响研究

Research on the Time-Varying Influence of the Development of China’s Logistics Industry on Economic Growth and Industrial Structure

当前,物流产业影响经济和产业发展的时变特征研究相对不足。鉴于此,本文运用全国层面1991—2021年的时间序列数据构建TVP-VAR模型,将物流产业发展、经济增长和产业结构纳入统一框架实证研究其时变影响效应。结果发现,我国物流产业发展促进了经济增长和产业结构优化,对经济增长的影响强度更大;物流产业对经济增长的促进作用短期较强,在中长期基本趋于收敛,对产业结构的影响长期存在;随着物流产业从起步到成长再到成熟的发展变迁,对经济增长和产业结构优化的促进作用不断增强,表现出显著的内生发展特征。本文据此提出了相应的政策建议,以供参考。

At present, the time-varying characteristics of logistics industry affecting economic and industrial development are relatively insu ffi cient. In view of this, using the time series data from 1991 to 2021 at the national level,this paper constructs the TVP-VAR model and integrates the development, economic growth and industrial structure of the logistics industry into the unifi ed framework for an empirical study of its time-varying ef fects. The results show that the development of logistics industry has promoted economic growth and industrial structure optimization at the same time, and the infl uence on economic growth is stronger. The promotion ef fect of logistics industry on economic growth is strong in the short term, and tends to converge in the medium and long term. The infl uence on industrial structure exists for a long time. With the development and change of logistics industry from the beginning to growth and then to maturity,the promotion role of economic growth and industrial structure optimization is constantly enhanced, showing signifi cant endogenous development characteristics. This paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations.