灵活就业人员的养老保障与生育意愿

Social Security and Gentility Intention of Flexible Workers

作为青壮年劳动力大军中体量位于前列的灵活就业人员,既是新业态从业保障体系建设的焦点,又是生育潜力释放的重要来源。本文基于中国综合社会调查数据(CGSS2017),探讨了灵活就业人员的养老保障与生育意愿的互动关系。研究发现:第一,在参保行为方面,“养儿防老”的传统生养观念在实际中演化成为灵活就业人员增保防啃的动力,社会养老保险尚未有效发挥弥补家庭养老功能不足的作用。第二,在生育意愿方面,虽然获得养老保障显著降低了灵活就业人员生育三胎及多胎孩子的意愿,但社会养老保险为灵活就业人员提供的养老保障预期依旧没有改变灵活就业人员对于“养儿防老”的依赖。第三,在养老保障与生育意愿的互动方面,相较于商业养老保险,灵活就业人员参加社会养老保险对其生育意愿的影响更为显著,生育的保障预期对老年风险的分摊效应也主要体现在社会保险而非商业保险的参保上。上述结论预示着,单纯放开生育政策并不意味着能直接纾解社会养老的压力,生育政策也并非引导生育意愿的唯一途径。应不断推进社会养老保障的发展与完善,使其与家庭养老形成良性互补,消除民众的养老顾虑,整体上增强居民多孩生育决策的约束弹性和意愿。

Flexible workers,who are in the forefront of the young and middle-aged labor force,are not only the focus of the construction of the employment guarantee system of new business forms,but also an important source of the release of fertility potential.Based on the data of China General Social Survey (CGSS2017),this paper explores the interactive relationship between old-age security and fertility intention of flexible workers.The findings are as follows:First,in terms of insurance participation behavior,compared with flexible employment workers who think it is not their children’s responsibility to provide for the aged,the more the number of children who are willing to have daughters,the higher the probability of participating in social pension security.Flexible workers with adult children are more likely to be insured than those without.Social insecurity,time spent online and the size of employees have a significant positive impact on the participation of flexible employees in old-age security.Second,in terms of fertility intention,although obtaining old-age security significantly reduced the willingness of flexible employment workers to have three or multiple children;But on average,having access to old-age security does not reduce the relative willingness to have more children.In addition,sibling experience and concept of succession have significant positive impact on fertility intention of flexible employment.Thirdly,the variable of fertility intention of flexible employment has a significant difference in its influence on the choice of social endowment insurance and commercial endowment insurance,and the contribution effect of the security expectation of fertility on the risk of old age is mainly reflected in the social insurance but not the commercial insurance.This shows that social endowment insurance plays a role in making up for the lack of family pension function to a certain extent,and the traditional concept of “raising children for old age” has evolved into a driving force for flexible employment personnel to increase insurance and prevent chewing in practice.On the other hand,the expectation of social endowment insurance for flexible employment has not changed the dependence of flexible employment for “raising children for old age”.The above conclusion indicates that simply liberalizing the birth policy does not mean that it can directly relieve the pressure of social endowment,and the birth policy is not the only way to guide the desire to have children.We should constantly promote the development and improvement of social pension security,so that it can form a benign complement with family pension,eliminate people’s pension concerns,and improve the constraint flexibility and willingness of residents to make multiple child bearing decisions on the whole.