人口集聚、空气污染与经济可持续发展——基于中国266个地级以上城市的空间计量分析

Population Concentration,Air Pollution and Sustainable Economic Development:Based on Spatial Econometric Analysis of 266 Cities Above Prefecture Level in China

探究人口集聚、空气污染与经济可持续发展的关系是关乎国家经济高质量发展的关键性议题。选取266个中国地级以上城市作为研究基点,精研人口、环境同经济之间的关系,结果表明:人口集聚对经济可持续发展影响具有空间溢出效应,人口集聚与经济可持续发展之间存在非线性关系;空气污染与经济可持续发展二者之间存在非线性关系,且具有空间溢出效应;人口集聚对经济可持续发展的影响存在空气污染的中介效应。研究逻辑框架表明,人口集聚、空气污染与经济可持续发展者之间的关系存在“人口集聚—空气污染—经济可持续发展”的解释机制。最终得出结论:人口集聚导致城市拥挤城市耗能和排放增加加重了空气污染从而对经济可持续发展形成一定的制约。空气污染的存在削弱了人口集聚对经济可持续发展的促进作用,因此,要更加注意短期内人口快速集聚对经济可持续发展形成的制约,警惕人口过度集聚对空气污染的影响及由此对经济可持续发展带来的负面影响。升擢城市“温度”、拓展城市“宽度”、增益城市“浓度”、聚焦城市“密度”,引导人口在区域范围内合理适度集聚,形成人口集聚合理布局,以技术创新发展方式转变和生产率提升减轻人口集聚对空气污染的负面影响从而降低由于空气污染造成的对经济可持续发展的制约,推动经济可持续绿色发展。

Exploring the relationship between population agglomeration,air pollution and sustainable economic development is a key issue related to the high-quality development of national economy.Taking 266 cities above prefecture level in China as the research base,this paper studies the relationship between population,environment and economy.The results show that population agglomeration has spatial spillover effect on sustainable economic development,and there is a nonlinear relationship between population agglomeration and sustainable economic development.There is a nonlinear relationship between air pollution and sustainable economic development,and there is a spatial spillover effect.The influence of population agglomeration on sustainable economic development has the intermediary effect of air pollution.The logical framework shows that there is an explanation mechanism of “population agglomeration-air pollution-sustainable economic development” for the relationship between population agglomeration,air pollution and sustainable economic development.Finally,the conclusion is drawn:the concentration of population leads to the increase of energy consumption and emissions in crowded cities,which aggravates air pollution and thus restricts the sustainable development of economy.The existence of air pollution weakens the role of population agglomeration in promoting sustainable economic development.Therefore,more attention should be paid to the restriction of rapid population agglomeration on sustainable economic development in the short term,and we should be alert to the influence of excessive population agglomeration on air pollution and its negative impact on sustainable economic development.Raise the city’s “temperature”,expand the city’s “width”,increase the city’s “concentration” and focus on the city’s “density”,guide the population to gather reasonably and moderately in the region,form a reasonable layout of population gathering,and reduce the negative impact of population gathering on air pollution by changing the development mode of technological innovation and increasing productivity,thus reducing the restriction on sustainable economic development caused by air pollution and promoting sustainable and green economic development.