“一带一路”沿线国家货币替代影响因素与政策效应

Influencing Factors and Policy Effect of Currency Substitution in Countries along the Belt and Road

人民币国际化是我国高水平金融开放的重要组成部分。“一带一路”作为我国发起的国际合作倡议,带动我国与沿线国家在基建、贸易、金融等领域的多方协作,为人民币国际化创造了客观条件。文章采用2005-2019年“一带一路”沿线7个地区31个国家面板数据,实证检验了沿线国家货币替代影响因素,结果表明:国内生产总值、汇率水平、通货膨胀率、国家间利差和外贸水平是影响各国货币替代程度的重要因素。在此基础上,采用双重差分模型,对“一带一路”倡议提出前后沿线和非沿线国家货币替代的政策效应进行了对比分析,将上述31个沿线国家作为实验组,将另外选取的7个特征相似的非沿线国家作为对照组,发现倡议的提出并未对沿线国家造成显著的货币替代效应。基于上述研究发现,文章对新时期人民币如何在“一带一路”沿线实现高质量“走出去”提出了差异化的推进策略及建议。

RMB internationalization is an important part of China’s high level financial opening-up. As China’s top international cooperation initiative, the Belt and Road Initiative has promoted broad cooperation in infrastructure, trade finance and other fields among China and countries along the routes, which creates objective condition for RMB internationalization. This study uses panel data of 31 countries in seven regions along the Belt and Road to empirically examine the influencing factors of currency substitution.The results show that GDP, exchange rate, inflation rate, interest rate spread and foreign trade level are important factors affecting the degree of currency substitution along the routes. On this basis, this study adopts the difference-in-differences model to make a comparative analysis on the currency substitution policy effect of countries along the routes and not along the routes before and after the Belt and Road Initiative. By taking above 31 countries along the routes as the experimental group and 7 non-route countries with similar features to those in the experimental group as the control group, we find that the Belt and Road Initiative has no significant currency substitution effect on countries along the routes. Based on above findings, we put forward differentiated strategies and suggestions for the high quality going global of RMB along the routes of Belt and Road.