新冠肺炎非药物干预策略对宁夏肺结核病伴随效应影响

Co-benefits effect of non-pharmacological intervention against COVID-19 on tuberculosis in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region:a SARIMA analysis

目的分析2020年新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情期间的非药物干预策略(NPIs)对宁夏回族自治区(简称宁夏)肺结核发病的影响。方法构建季节性差分自回归移动平均(SARIMA)模型对2020年宁夏肺结核发病进行预测,并根据2020年突发公共卫生事件不同的应急响应级别将肺结核实际发病数分别与2019年同期数据以及模型得出的预期发病数计算相对变化率进行对比分析。结果2004—2020年宁夏肺结核发病存在明显的季节性趋势;ARIMA(1,1,2)(1,1,2)_(12)模型(RMSE=1280.500,MAPE=13.15%)为筛选出的最优模型。2020年突发公共卫生事件一至三级响应时发病的预期降幅分别为63.58%、29.61%和8.59%。结论新冠肺炎的非药物干预措施对宁夏肺结核病具有降低发病的伴随效应,且该效应与应急响应级别呈正比,突发公共卫生事件应急响应级别越高,该抑制作用越明显。

Objective To analyze the influence of non-pharmacological interventions(NPIs)against coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)on tuberculosis(TB)incidence in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region(Ningxia)in 2020.Methods Using TB incidents reported in Ningxia during 2004-2018 as a training set and those during 2019-2020 as a prediction set,a seasonal autoregressive moving average(SARIMA)model was established to predict TB incidents during the three COVID-19 epidemic periods with different response level in 2020 in Ningxia.The relative rate of change in the number of TB incidence for the three response periods were calculated by comparing the TB incidence number in the COVID-19response periods with the number of same periods in 2019 or the number predicted based on the established SARIMA model.Results The established ARIMA(1,1,2)(1,1,2)_(12) model was fitted to the data well,with a root mean square error of 1280.50 and a mean absolute percentage error of 13.15%.The NPIs against COVID-19 showed an inhibitive co-benefits effect on the incidence of TB in Ningxia,resulting the expected incidence reductions of 63.58%,29.61%and 8.59%for the response periods of levelⅠ,levelⅡand levelⅢ,respectively.Conclusion Non-pharmacological interventions against COVID-19could exert an incidence reduction co-benefits effect on TB in Ningxia,and the effect may be positively related to the grade of emergency response.