增长、补贴与债务:统一货币区的空间政治经济学

Growth, Subsidy, and Debt: Spatial-Political Economy in a Single Currency Area

中国面临严重的政府债务风险,主要表现为欠发达地区政府负债率更高的状况。欠发达地区经济增长受制于地理和区位条件,劳动力在区域间流动不够充分,又无法有自主的货币政策,使得欠发达地区难以提升竞争力,同时有大量经济发展、公共服务和社会保障方面的财政支出,因此,在欠发达地区出现了增长动力不足、依赖转移支付、扩张政府债务这三者之间的权衡和组合,简称“增长-补贴-债务的三角悖论”。本文基于统一货币区视角的空间政治经济学,提出中国经济尤其是欠发达地区发展的“三阶段论”,展现了增长、补贴、债务的交替关系,并指出了欠发达地区举债的道德风险机制。中国未来应通过推进劳动力完全自由流动、充分发挥经济集聚功能和推进央地关系改革改善大国空间治理,从根本上缓解政府债务问题。

Chinese local governments are currently confronted with serious debt issues,marked by higher debt-GDP ratio especially in less developed areas.Economic growth in less developed areas is constrained by regional geographical conditions.The lack of efficacy in the flow of labor and inde-pendent monetary policy in underdeveloped regions usually adopting the unified monetary policy can hardly improve the economic competitiveness in these regions.In the meantime,these regions have witnessed high fiscal expenditure on economic development,public service,and social security.This results in weak economic growth,dependence on fiscal transfer from the central government,and increase of governmental debt in underdeveloped regions,referred to by some scholars as the"trilemma of growth,subsidy,and debt."This article proposes a"three-stage development"theory on Chinese regional economic development to illustrate the relationship between growth,subsidy,and debt,pointing out the moral issue associated with debt in underdeveloped regions.It suggests that it's the problem caused by local debt could be alleviated by further promoting labor mobility,agglomerative economy,and the reform of central-local relations.