人民币汇率制度改革的结构性演进:历史回顾、经验总结与前景展望

The Evolution of the RMB Exchange Rate Regime: Retrospect, Experience and Prospect

自1994年汇改以来,人民币汇率制度改革大致经历了每十年左右一期的三个阶段。为适应不断变化的国内外宏观环境,人民币汇率制度改革经历了汇率并轨、波幅扩大和中间价改革的结构性演进历程。人民币汇率制度改革形成了采取渐进式汇改策略、避免汇率短期内大起大落、保持适当资本账户管制、通过国内结构性改革为汇改提供有力保障等历史经验。实现自由浮动是人民币汇率制度改革的终极目标,但短期内很难一步到位。在过渡期内,建议设立人民币篮子汇率的年度宽幅目标区制度,并辅之以必要的资本流动管制。

The reform of RMB exchange rate regime has gone through three stages since 1994, each stage lasting about ten years. To adapt to the changes in the macro environment, the reform of RMB exchange rate regime focused on the unification of dual exchange rates, the expansion of daily fluctuation zone and the reform of central parity pricing in the three stages respectively. As for each stage, we summarized the leading reform and the aided reform, and evaluated the reform effectiveness. The major lessons include adopting gradual reform strategy, avoiding exchange rate overshooting, maintaining appropriate capital flow controls, and using structural reforms to support exchange rate regime reforms. Free floating is the ultimate goal of the reform, but it is difficult to achieve in the short term. We propose an annual target zone for RMB’s effective exchange rate during the transition phase, aided by necessary capital flow controls.