通货膨胀预期与企业金融化——基于“通货膨胀幻觉”的视角

Inflation Expectation and Corporate financialization from the “Inflation Illusion” Perspective

在疫情防控常态化时期,持续攀升的通货膨胀率为我国经济平稳运行带来了新的挑战。本文基于“通货膨胀幻觉”的视角,探索宏观经济环境变化对企业金融活动的影响及其内在机理。研究表明,高通货膨胀预期会促进非金融企业扩大当期金融活动。机制检验显示,由于投资者存在“通胀幻觉”,通货膨胀预期上升会导致企业股权价值被低估,进而促使企业增加金融资产投资以修复估值。对于机构持股比例更低、杠杆率更高的企业,“通胀幻觉”导致企业股权价值被低估程度更高,通货膨胀预期对企业金融化趋势的促进作用更为显著。进一步研究发现,通货膨胀预期下企业增加金融资产投资的主要动机是利润追逐而非预防性储蓄,且较高的信息透明度和市场化程度能通过缓解投资者的“通胀幻觉”有效抑制企业金融化趋势。本文的研究表明,完善信息披露制度、鼓励机构投资者参与市场和推动产业升级以缩小金融、实体利润差,有助于促进金融更好地服务实体经济高质量发展。

As implementation of epidemic prevention and control measures becomes routine, rising inflation has brought new challenges for China to ensure smooth operations of its economy. From the “inflation illusion” perspective, this paper explores the impact of changes in the macroeconomic environment on corporate financial activities and its working mechanism. Empirical research shows that expectations for high inflation prompt non-financial firms to expand their current financial activities. The mechanism test shows that, due to the “inflation illusion” of investors, the rise in inflation expectations leads to the undervaluation of corporate equity, which in turn prompts firms to increase investment in financial assets to repair the valuation. For firms with lower institutional ownership and a higher leverage ratio, the “inflationary illusion” leads to greater undervaluation of corporate equity, and inflation expectations significantly strengthens the trend of corporate financialization. Further study finds that the primary motivation for increasing financial asset investment under inflation expectations is profit seeking rather than precautionary saving. At the same time, more information transparency and a higher level of marketization can effectively restrain corporate financialization by alleviating investors’ “inflation illusion.” This paper shows that improving the information disclosure system, encouraging institutional investors to participate in the market and promote industry upgrading to narrow the profit gap between the financial sector and the real economy can help the financial sector better serve the high-quality development of the real economy.