城市群经济差异、产业结构与南北经济分化

Economic Disparities and Industrial Structure of Urban Agglomerations and North-South Economic Divergence

中国的区域经济竞争格局已经逐渐从省市竞争转向城市群竞争,因此目前的经济分化问题更直接体现为城市群的分化。本文对传统的增长率分解方法进行了改进,通过结合偏离-份额分析和价格结构分解方法,对中国19个城市群2000—2020年的经济增长进行数量价格的嵌套分解,从城市群角度探究南北经济分化的结构性原因。研究发现:2013—2020年,南北城市群普遍经历了价格和数量的双重“结构性减速”,其中北方的减速程度大于南方,由此加剧了南北经济分化;期间的增长优势区域主要为西南方和中部的后发城市群,而劣势区域则集中在华北和东北板块;南北经济加速分化主要源于北方城市群第二产业结构和竞争双优势的急剧下跌,以及南方城市群第三产业结构优势和第二、三产业竞争优势的快速增长。进一步的因果分析显示:北方城市群以快速提升第三产业产值占比为导向的产业结构“高级化”出现了严重的失真现象,由此扩大了南北的经济增长(率)及产业竞争力差距。本文提出应分类促进各城市群的产业结构优化和产业竞争力提升,特别是要强化北方城市群的产业结构合理度,为缓解南北经济分化和丰富以城市群为载体的区域协调发展研究提供相关参考。

The regional economic competition pattern in China has gradually shifted from competition between provinces and cities to competition between urban agglomerations, so the current economic divergence problem is more directly reflected in the divergence of urban agglomerations. Based on the panel data of 19 urban agglomerations in China for the past 21 years, the study explores the spatial and temporal evolution and structural causes of the north-south economic divergence of urban agglomerations using an improved decomposition model of economic growth. The study finds that from 2013 to 2020, China’s urban agglomerations generally experienced a double “structural deceleration” in price and quantity, at a faster pace in northern urban agglomerations than in southern ones, thus intensifying north-south economic divergence. During this period, the main advantageous regions were the late-developing urban agglomerations in southwest and central China, while the disadvantageous regions were concentrated in north and northeast China. There are two reasons for the accelerating north-south economic divergence. Firstly, the structural and competitive advantages of northern urban agglomerations in the secondary sector have dropped sharply. Secondly, southern urban agglomerations’ structural advantages in the tertiary sector and competitive advantages in secondary and tertiary sectors are growing rapidly. Compared with the south, the upgrading of industrial structure in the north has a greater negative impact on economic growth. It is proposed to promote the industrial structure optimization and industrial competitiveness enhancement of each urban agglomeration by type, especially to make the industrial structure in northern urban agglomerations more rational. This study provides a reference for the research on coordinated regional development.