地方政府债务风险测度与防范——以山西省为例

Measurement and Prevention of Local Government Debt Risks

由于外部环境的不确定性,我国经济增长依然存在下行压力,一些地方政府仍需扩大债务规模以适应宏观经济现状,从而推动“双循环”新发展格局下经济质量的提升。我国地方债务违约风险仍然存在。基于山西省1960~2019年的数据通过测算可以发现,山西省2020~2022年地方政府债务规模限度分别为387.3亿元、447.83亿元、456.12亿元,虽然目前山西省地方政府债务风险在总体上是可控的,但也存在债务风险。因此,山西省地方政府应该采取完善地方政府财政体制、设立地方政府偿债基金、提高专项债务使用绩效以及加强地方政府债务预算管理等措施防范化解地方债务风险,助力山西省经济的行稳致远。

Due to the uncertainty of the external environment,there is still downward pressure on China's economic growth,and some local governments still need to expand the scale of debts to adapt to the situation of the overall economy,thereby promote the improvement of economic quality under the new development paradigm of"dual circulation".Therefore,the possibility of the default risks of China's local debts still exists.Based on the data of Shanxi province from 1960 to 2019,it can be found that the scale of local government debts in Shanxi province in 2020,2021 and 2022 should be 38.73 billion Chinese Yuan,44.783 billion Chinese Yuan,and45.612 billion Chinese Yuan,respectively.Although the current local government debt risks in Shanxi province are controllable in the overall,but they are still existing.Therefore,the local governments of Shanxi province should take measures such as improving the local government financial system,setting up local government debt repayment funds,improving the performance of special debt use,and strengthening local government debt budget management to prevent and resolve local debt risks,so as to help the province's economy develop more steadily and farther.