中国省际人口流动的特征及影响因素的空间分析

Spatial Patterns and Influencing Factors of Inter-Provincial Migration in China

依据2010、2020年全国人口普查数据以及经济社会数据,采用空间分析方法,对中国近10年省际人口流动的特征及影响因素进行了考察和分析。结果表明,2010~2020年,中国省际人口流动规模大幅增加,总体呈现非均衡“双向流动”格局,省际人口流动的主流是从中西部欠发达人口大省流向东部发达地区及邻近省份,省际人口净流入向东部发达经济圈“极化”趋势凸显。基于地理加权回归模型的分析发现,经济社会因素对省际人口流动具有显著影响,且中、东部各省份经济社会因素对省际人口净流入的影响较大,西部各省份经济社会因素对省际人口净流入的影响相对较小。2010~2020年,经济社会因素对省际人口净流入影响的东西差异依然显著,南北差异则有增强趋势。

Using population census data and spatial analysis method,this paper examines the influencing factors of China’s inter-provincial migration over 2010~2020.Inter-provincial floating population in China expands enormously,and presents an unbalanced“two-way floating”pattern.Inter-provincial floating population is dominated by migration from the less developed provinces in the central and western regions to the more developed provinces in the East and adjacent regions.Factor analysis and geographically weighted regression model are used to explore factors affecting China’s inter-provincial migration.While economic and social factors have significant impacts on inter-provincial migration,the impacts are greater in the central and eastern provinces than in the western provinces.The East-West gap in the impact of economic and social factors on net migration is still considerable,and the North-South gap is on the increase.