中国县级人口变动的空间格局及影响因素——基于第七次全国人口普查数据的新探索

A County-Level Analysis of China’s Population Change:Insights from the 7th Population Census

基于第五、六、七次全国人口普查县级数据,考察2000年以来中国人口变动的空间格局及其影响因素。结果表明,近10年中国人口增速放缓,约六成县级单元人口减少;人口分布非均衡性加剧,新增人口更加集中于少数地区;人口增速的东西差异持续,南北差异凸显;中心城市和县域人口增减趋势加速分化。人口变动驱动力具有明显的时间变动性和空间异质性:自然地理因素对人口变动的限制性减弱;人口变动逐渐由受劳动力市场因素单一驱动向受劳动力市场因素和公共服务因素共同驱动转变,且在经济发达的东部地区表现更为明显;人口向省、地级行政中心集聚的趋势日益强化和普遍化,尤其是在中西部地区。研究结果有助于理解人口变动的规律和机制,可为引导人口有序布局、促进人口均衡分布提供借鉴。

Drawing on the data from the latest three decennial censuses,this paper analyzes the spatial pattern and influencing factors of China’s population change since 2000.The results show that China’s population becomes more spatially unbalanced,which is reflected by the persistent difference between the east and west areas,the widening gap between the south and north areas,and the increasing disparity between the central cities and peripheral counties.Natural environment,economic,amenity factors and the administrative hierarchy play significant roles in population change.However,their effects not only evolve with time,but also vary among regions at different stages of development.In the last decade,regions with a high rate of population growth have transferred from the coastal areas to the inland areas and from the plain areas to the mountain areas.The differences of public services among regions become an important factor for population growths,especially in the east China.Central cities become more and more attractive to population,showing the increased impact of state forces,which mainly happens in the middle and west China.The results can help understand the driving factors of population change,and provide references for promoting the balanced population development.