产业政策有效吗?--实证研究评述与展望

Does Industrial Policy Work?A Literature Review of Empirical Studies and Prospects

虽然各国政府一直热衷于用产业政策来促进经济增长,但学术界关于产业政策是否有效的争论却一直没有停止过。文章回顾了产业政策实证研究的历史和新进展,讨论了产业政策实证研究的难点和不足,并展望了未来的方向。文章认为反事实推断和准自然实验方法的使用是实证研究的一个重大发展,但由于其主要方法仍然属于简约式,未来为了更加精确地测量产业政策是否有效,必须更加深刻地理解其作用机制,采用结构式分析方法是一个可能的选择,同时也无法回避其制度内生性。

The national governments are hot for making use of the industrial policy to promote their economic growth,while in the academic field;the argument of whether it works is still doubtful and never reaches a clear conclusion.This paper reviews the past and present empirical studies,discusses the difficulties and deficiencies of the existing studies and tries to shed light on the future research.The paper believes that the use of the counter-factual inference and the quasi-natural experiment in the empirical study is a big progress in this field,but due to its reduced-form method mainly adopted,its mechanism of action should be comprehended in depth for further testing whether the industrial policy works more accurately.The structural-form analytical method might be a selection,while the institutional endogenous problems cannot be neglected.