深圳河流域防洪调度预演研究

Study on Flood Control Dispatching Rehearsal in Shenzhen River Basin

当前开展深圳河流域大型防洪工程建设难度较大,为确保深圳水库和下游深圳河的防洪安全,基于水利部水旱灾害防御“四预”要求,分析了构建演练场时景需考虑的约束条件,并针对深圳水库和深圳河进行防洪联合调度预演,通过模拟典型工况下水库泄洪对河道水位的影响,挖掘了水库调蓄滞洪潜力,探讨了错潮泄洪的可行性。结果表明,深圳河流域普降10年一遇降雨,深圳水库局部降雨不超过100年一遇,同时遭遇天文大潮的不利情形下,深圳水库能够有效实现有效调蓄洪峰,保证防洪安全。结果揭示了水库调度对深圳水库及深圳河防洪安全的优化作用;利用洪涝模型,可以科学合理地实现深圳河和深圳水库的联合调度演练。

At present,it is difficult to carry out large-scale flood control project construction in Shenzhen River Basin.Therefore,to ensure the flood control safety of Shenzhen Reservoir and downstream Shenzhen River,this paper follows the requirements of the forecast,early warning,rehearsal,and preplan proposed by the Ministry of Water Resources for flood and drought disaster prevention and analyzes constraints to be considered when constructing the rehearsal scene.In addition,the joint flood control dispatching rehearsal is carried out in Shenzhen Reservoir and Shenzhen River.By simulating the influence of reservoir flood discharge on river channel level under typical conditions,the paper explores the potential of the reservoir in flood regulation and detention and discusses the feasibility of flood discharge by staggering the tide.The results show that Shenzhen River Basin faces the heaviest rainfall in a decade,and the local heaviest rainfall in Shenzhen Reservoir is no more than once in 100 years.At the same time,under the unfavorable conditions of astronomical tides,Shenzhen Reservoir can effectively regulate flood peaks and ensure the safety of flood control.The results reveal the optimal effect of reservoir dispatching on flood control safety of Shenzhen Reservoir and Shenzhen River,and the joint dispatching rehearsal of Shenzhen River and Shenzhen Reservoir can be realized scientifically and reasonably through the flood model.