“双碳”目标约束下环境分权的产业升级效应研究

Research on Industrial Upgrading Effect of Environmental Decentralization Under the Constraint of Carbon Peak and Neutrality Goals

基于长江经济带2003—2019年108个城市市级面板数据,采用双差分法(DID)实证研究了环境分权对产业升级的影响。结果发现:(1)环境分权有利于促进长江经济带城市产业升级,并通过了平行趋势、安慰剂和PSM-DID等多维度的稳健性检验;异质性分析结果表明,环境分权的产业升级效应存在异质性,其中环境分权显著促进了长江经济带上游和中游地区产业升级,对经济欠发达地区产业升级效果更为明显;(2)引入“双碳”目标约束的调节效应表明,“双碳”目标约束对环境分权的产业升级效应具有正向调节效应;(3)传导机制分析表明,技术进步和全要素生产率是环境分权促进产业升级的重要传导机制。

Based on the panel data of 108 cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2003 to 2019, this paper uses DID to empirically study the impact of environmental decentralization on industrial upgrading. Results show that, environmental decentralization is conducive to promoting urban industrial upgrading in the Yangtze River economic belt, and the robustness tests of parallel trend, placebo, PSM-DID and replacement of explained variables are retested.Results of heterogeneity analysis show that there is heterogeneity in the impact of environmental decentralization on industrial upgrading in different regions. Among them, environmental decentralization significantly promotes industrial upgrading in the upper and middle reaches of the Yangtze River economic belt, especially in economically underdeveloped areas. The regulatory effect of introducing carbon peak and neutrality goals constraints shows that carbon peak and neutrality goals constraints have a positive regulatory effect on the industrial upgrading effect of environmental decentralization. Further transmission mechanism analysis shows that technological progress and total factor productivity improvement are important transmission mechanisms for environmental decentralization to promote industrial upgrading.