摘要
本文在对气象数据和出租车GPS数据预处理的基础上,考虑影响因子之间的多重相关性和不同拥堵状态的情况,建立多种影响因子和出租车运行速度之间的岭回归模型,得出不同拥堵条件下各种影响因子对出租车运行速度的影响系数,进而分析影响出租车运行速度的主要因素。结果表明:在早高峰时段,在严重拥堵路段是否为工作日对速度的影响较小,相反拥堵路段和缓行路段该因素对速度的影响较大;天气状况对不同拥堵状态的路段的平均速度均有较大影响。在晚高峰时段,在严重拥堵路段和拥堵路段是否为工作日对速度的影响较小,而缓行路段该因素对速度的影响较大;天气状况对严重拥堵的路段平均速度影响系数为5.79,对其他状态的路段平均速度影响系数均小于2。在平峰时段,是否为工作日对各路段状态的平均速度的影响均较小;天气状况对严重拥堵的路段平均速度影响较大,对其他状态的路段平均速度影响极小。此外,模型显示温度和风力对出租车整体运行速度几乎没有影响。
In recent years,there are more and more researches on the operation of urban traffic.Taxi played a pivotal role in urban traffic,and the factors affecting the operation of urban taxi are diverse.Considering the influence of various factors,time period and weather,the study on the operation characteristics of taxi has become a hot topic.Based on meteorological data and taxi GPS data preprocessing,on the basis of considering the multiple correlation between influence factors and different congestion state,established a variety of factors and taxi running speed,the ridge regression model between the different traffic conditions of various influence factors on the taxi speed influence coefficient,Then analyzed the main factors affecting taxi speed.The prediction error RMSE of the model is small and R square is large,so the model can well fited the relationship between taxi speed and influence factors.The results of the model show that in the morning rush hour,whether the heavy traffic section is a working day has little influence on the speed,but the heavy traffic section and slow traffic section have great influence on the speed.The weather condition has a great influence on the average speed of different congested sections.In the evening rush hour,whether the heavy traffic section and the heavy traffic section are working days has little influence on the speed,while the slow traffic section has a greater influence on the speed.The influence coefficient of weather conditions on the average speed of severely congested sections is 5.79,while the influence coefficient on the average speed of other sections is less than 2.In off-peak period,whether it is working day has little influence on the average speed of each section state.Weather conditions have a great influence on the average speed of severely congested sections,but have little influence on the average speed of other sections.In addition,the model showed that temperature and wind had little effect on overall taxi speed.
作者
刘聪
刘涵
Cong Liu;Han Liu(Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China)
出处
《青海交通科技》
2021年第6期13-20,共8页
Qinghai Transportation Science and Technology
