既有政策驱动下实现建筑碳达峰的不同技术组合减碳潜力比较研究

Comparative Research on Carbon Reduction Potential of Different Building Technology Combinations to Achieve Carbon Peak Driven by Existing Policies

碳达峰、碳中和目标的提出为建筑节能减排技术措施的发展提出了新要求。梳理“双碳”目标提出后影响建筑碳排放的主要政策文件中的关键技术及发展目标,建立了建筑部门主要政策减碳综合影响评估模型,量化了各项技术措施减碳潜力和对碳达峰的贡献。结果表明:以2030年碳达峰为目标,对建筑减碳影响最明显的因素依次为电碳因子降低、节能标准提升、建筑光伏推进;基准情景下,2030年建筑运行碳排放为29.87亿tCO_(2)并将持续上升,通过不同技术组合,可将达峰时间范围控制在2026-2030年,峰值为24.74亿~27.41亿tCO_(2);在不同电碳因子下降趋势下,建筑部门实现2030年碳达峰目标的自主贡献率为42.5%~74.5%,对应电碳因子降低的贡献为57.5%~25.5%。

The proposal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality puts forward more stringent requirements for the development of building energy efficiency and emission reduction technology measures. The key technologies and development goals in major policy documents that affect building carbon emissions released after the dual-carbon target is proposed are summarized, and the comprehensive impact assessment model of major policies on carbon reduction in the building sector is established to quantify the carbon reduction potential and contribution of various technical measures to carbon peak. The results show that with the goal of carbon peak in 2030, the most obvious influencing factors on building carbon reduction are the decrease of electric carbon factor, the improvement of energy efficiency standard, and the promotion of building photovoltaic. Under the Business As Usual scenario, carbon emissions from building operation in 2030 will be 2.987 billion tCO_(2) and will continue to rise. The peak time range can be controlled from 2026 to 2030 with a peak of 2.474 billion tCO_(2) to 2.741 billion tCO_(2) through different technology combinations. Under the decreasing trend of different electric carbon factors, the independent contribution rate of the building sector to achieve the carbon emission peak goal by 2030 is 42.5%~74.5%, and the corresponding contribution of the decrease of electric carbon factors is 57.5%~25.5%.