武汉市社会经济发展与生态环境变化趋势分析

Analysis on the Trend of Social and Economic Development and Ecological Environment Change in Wuhan

基于2011—2020年武汉市社会经济发展、环境质量和污染源排放数据,采用相关性分析、秩排序和主成分分析等方法,分析经济指标与环境状况指标的变化趋势和相互关系。结果表明:武汉市社会经济发展呈现持续健康发展态势,工业废水、废气和固废排放量年均变化率为-6.7%~1.5%,工业主要污染物排放总量显著下降,年均变化率为-24%~-16%,与主要社会经济指标显著负相关。环境质量整体状况持续好转,空气质量综合指数、河流综合污染指数显著下降,年均变化率为-9.0%和-6.3%。主要环境质量指标浓度均显著下降,但河流中化学需氧量浓度下降趋势不显著。新冠肺炎疫情期间环境质量显著好转,其中环境空气改善水平高于地表水。主成分分析结果显示:武汉市环境空气质量与社会经济发展的关系处于良性促进、持续好转的阶段,但地表水环境质量好转趋势相对平缓,改善过程中有波动,改善难度相对更大。

Based on the data of social and economic development,environmental quality and pollution source emission in Wuhan from 2011 to 2020,the change trend and relationship between economic indicators and environmental indicators were analyzed by using the methods of correlation analysis,rank ranking and principal component analysis.The results showed that the socio-economic development in Wuhan presented a sustained and healthy development trend.The average annual change rate of industrial wastewater,waste gas and solid waste emissions was-6.7%-1.5%,and the total discharge of major industrial pollutants decreased significantly,with an average annual change rate of-24%--16%,which was significantly negatively correlated with the main socio-economic indicators.The overall situation of environmental quality continued to improve,and the comprehensive air quality index and river pollution index decreased significantly,with an average annual change rate of-9.0%and-6.3%.The concentration of main environmental quality indicators decreased significantly,but the downward trend of COD concentration in rivers was not significant.Environmental quality improved significantly during the COVID-19,and the improvement level of ambient air was higher than surface water.The results of principal component analysis showed that the relationship between ambient air quality and socio-economic development in Wuhan presented a stage of benign promotion and continuous improvement,but the improvement trend of surface water environmental quality was relatively flat,there were fluctuations in the improvement process,and the difficulty of improvement was relatively more greater.