“一带一路”沿线国家经济周期波动的时变特征比较

Comparison of Time-varying Characteristics of Economic Cycle Fluctuations in Countries Along the Belt and Road

文章运用Markov区制转移状态空间模型,实证分析“一带一路”沿线国家经济周期波动的时变特征及其原因。研究发现:模型能够较好地识别沿线国家经济周期的扩张与收缩状态,与各国实际经济增长过程基本吻合;经济周期整体上呈现区制转换较弱、经济收缩与扩张呈非对称性、具有较强的“自维持性”等群体性特征。转型国家和发达国家具有中长期的区制持久性,而发展中国家持续时间较短;转型国家经济周期以短扩张长收缩为主,发达国家以长扩张短收缩为主,发展中国家则具有上述两种非对称性周期特征。金融贸易、地缘政治、战争冲突、国内局势和自然灾害等是导致沿线国家经济周期波动差异化的重要原因,而海外市场是共同的重要影响因素。

This paper adopts Markov-switching state space model to empirically analyze the characteristics and reasons of the economic cycle fluctuation in countries along the Belt and Road(B&R). The findings are as the following: The model can identify the expansion and contraction of business cycle of countries along B&R, which is basically consistent with the actual economic growth process of each country. Generally, business cycle is characterized by weak regime transformation, asymmetry of contraction and expansion, and strong “self-persistence” for the whole sample. Transitional and developed countries have medium-and long-term regime persistence, while developing countries have short regime duration. The transitional countries are dominated by short expansion and long contraction, while that of the developed countries is dominated by long expansion and short contraction,and that of the developing countries has the above two asymmetric cycle characteristics. Finance, trade, geopolitics, war conflict,domestic situation and natural disasters are the important reasons for the economic cycle fluctuations and differentiation of countries along the Belt and Road and overseas markets are the common important influencing factors.