城市公共服务对生育率的影响——基于面板分位数模型的检验

The Impact of Urban Public Services on Fertility——Test Based on Panel Quantile Model

当前我国面临严峻的人口形势,而提高城市公共服务水平和均等化程度,对于提高生育率起着重要作用。基于2008-2019年285个地级市面板数据,采用固定效应面板分位数模型,实证检验不同分位数水平下各项城市公共服务保障、地区收入水平及女性受教育程度对于生育率的影响。结果表明:社会保障与生育率呈现出负向关系,低分位点时,教育保障对提高生育生育率产生正向促进作用,高分位点时则产生负向影响。医疗保障、住房保障、就业保障、生活综合保障水平在全分位点上对改善生育率均存在正向效果。地区收入水平在低分位点时影响效果不显著,而在高分位点时抑制单个家庭的生育意愿。女性受教育程度的提高与生育率呈现反向特征。

China is currently facing a severe population situation,and improving the level of urban public services and equalization plays an important role in improving fertility.Based on the panel data of 285 prefecture-level cities from 2008 to 2019,this paper empirically examines the effects of social security,education security,medical security,housing security,employment security,comprehensive living security,regional income level and female education level on fertility at different quantile levels by using the fixed-effect panel quantile model.The results show that there is a negative relationship between social security and fertility rate.When the locus is low,educational security has a positive effect on improving fertility rate,while when the locus is high,it has a negative effect.The levels of medical security,housing security,employment security and comprehensive life security all have positive effects on improving fertility rate.Regional income level had no significant effect at low loci,while it inhibited the fertility intention of individual families at high loci.The increase of female education level and fertility rate showed an inverse characteristic.