基于Markov链的光电转换系统可靠性评估与应用

Reliability assessment and application of photoelectric conversion system based on Markov chain

光电转换系统可靠性评估可为光伏电站规划提供有价值参考。为此,本文提出基于Markov链的光电转换系统可靠性评估模型,该模型应用经验准则划分温度-辐照状态并构建其Markov链,再使用应力分析法计算光电转换系统故障率,而后形成光电转换系统故障率Markov链。据此,计算光电转换系统平均故障率等可靠性指标,定义光电转换系统平均故障率的温度和辐照弹性系数,用于量化光电转换系统平均故障率对两类气象因素的灵敏度关系。收集美国North Dakota州多处观测站的实测温度和辐照数据,评估某光电转换系统在不同观测站的可靠性指标,结果表明,低纬度观测站的光电转换系统平均故障率较高,且光电转换系统平均故障率的辐照弹性系数高于温度弹性系数,光电转换系统平均故障率对辐照更敏感。

Reliability assessment of photoelectric conversion system can provide valuable reference for photovoltaic power station planning.Hence,this paper proposes a reliability assessment model of photoelectric conversion system based on Markov chain,which applies empirical criteria to classify temperature-irradiation state and construct its Markov chain,and then uses stress analysis method to calculate the failure rate of photoelectric conversion system,and then forms the Markov chain of photoelectric conversion system failure rate.Accordingly,the reliability indexes such as average failure rate of photoelectric conversion system are calculated,and the elastic coefficients of temperature and irradiation on the average failure rate of photoelectric conversion system are defined,which to quantify the sensitivity relationship between two meteorological factors on average the failure rate of photoelectric conversion system.Collecting the measured temperature and irradiation data of several observation stations in North Dakota,and evaluating the reliability index of a photoelectric conversion system at different observation stations.The results show that the average failure rate of the photoelectric conversion system at low latitude observation stations is higher,and irradiation elasticity coefficient for the average failure rate of the photoelectric conversion system is higher than temperature elasticity coefficient,the average failure rate of the photoelectric conversion system is more sensitive to irradiation than temperature.