农村非正规金融对林业产业发展的影响——基于中国30个省级面板数据的实证分析

Influence of Rural Informal Finance on the Development of Forestry Industry——Empirical Analysis Based on 30 Chinese Provincial Panel Data

林业产业在国民经济中具有十分重要的地位,但面临资本形成不足、资金短缺等问题。农村非正规金融作为金融供给体系的重要组成部分,对其与林业产业发展间的关系进行研究具有重要意义。文章基于2004-2018年中国30个省级面板数据,采用两步系统广义矩估计法,实证分析了农村非正规金融对林业产业发展的影响。结果表明:(1)当期林业产业发展水平在很大程度上受到上一期林业发展情况的影响;(2)农村非正规金融与林业产业发展在5%的显著性水平上存在显著的正向关系,且在促进林业产业发展上的效率高于正规金融,不过二者之间存在一定的互补效应;(3)相比其他林区,南方集体林区的农村非正规金融对林业产业发展的促进效应更为明显;(4)林业产业结构对林业产业发展具有显著的负向影响,系数为-1.140。根据研究结论,提出政策启示:(1)调动民间资本参与林业产业建设,加强农村非正规金融的法制环境建设,助力解决林农融资困难问题;(2)引导农村非正规金融与正规金融的合作,建立合作互补的联结机制;(3)推动林业产业结构优化提升,将重点拓展到第二、第三产业。

Forestry industry plays a very important role in the national economy, but faces problems such as insufficient capital formation and shortage of funds. As an important part of the financial supply system, rural informal finance is of great significance to study the relationship between rural informal finance and the development of forestry industry. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2004 to 2018, this paper adopts the two-step system generalized method of moment to empirically analyze the impact of rural informal finance on the development of forestry industry. The results show that:(1)The current forestry industry development level is largely affected by the previous forestry development.(2)There is a significant positive relationship between rural informal finance and forestry industry development at the 5% confidence level, and the efficiency of rural informal finance in promoting the development of the forestry industry is higher than that of formal finance, but there is a certain complementary effect between the two.(3)Compared with other forest areas, rural informal finance in the southern collective forest area has a significant impact on the promotion effect of forestry industry development is more obvious.(4)Forestry industry structure has a significant negative impact on forestry industry development, the coefficient was-1.140. According to the research conclusions, policy implications are put forward:(1) Mobilize private capital to participate in the construction of forestry industry, strengthen the legal environment construction of rural informal finance, and help solve the financing difficulties of forest farmers.(2) Guide the cooperation between rural informal finance and formal finance, establish a connection mechanism for cooperation and complementarity.(3)Promote the optimization and upgrading of the forestry industry structure, and expand the focus to the secondary and tertiary industries system generalized method of moment.