数字经济、环境规制与碳减排——基于空间溢出与面板门槛的分析

Digital economy,environmental regulation and carbon emission reduction:an analysis based on spatial spillover and panel threshold

基于2012—2020年中国28个省(市、区)的面板数据,运用空间杜宾模型,分析数字经济和环境规制对碳排放的空间溢出效应;并以数字经济为门槛变量,运用门槛模型,探讨环境规制和碳排放水平的非线性关系。结果表明:数字经济对碳排放具有负向溢出效应,环境规制在东部地区具有负向溢出效应,但在中西部表现为正向溢出。环境规制和碳排放水平之间存在显著双重门槛效应,环境规制促进碳减排的最佳数字经济区间为第一区间(lndig≤12.201);处在第二区间(12.20116.222)后,环境规制的碳减排效应略微弱化。

Based on the panel data of 28 provinces and cities in China from 2012 to 2020, the spatial Dobbin model is used to analyze the spatial spillover effect of digital economy and environmental regulation on carbon emission. Taking digital economy as the threshold variable,the threshold model is used to explore the non-linear relationship between environmental regulation and carbon emission level. The results show that digital economy has a negative spillover effect on carbon emissions, and environmental regulation has a negative spillover effect in the eastern region, but a positive spillover effect in the central and western regions;There is a significant double threshold effect between environmental regulation and carbon emission level. The best digital economy interval for environmental regulation to promote carbon emission reduction is the first interval(lndig≤12. 201);In the second interval(12. 20116. 222), the carbon emission reduction effect of environmental regulation is slightly weaker.