“双创”政策对中小企业绩效影响的SD仿真研究

Study on the Impact of "Mass Entrepreneurship and Innovation" Policy Based on System Dynamics on the Performance of SMEs

以探究我国“双创”政策对中小企业绩效的政策效应为切入点,基于政策工具理论将“双创”政策划分为“双创”供给型、需求性以及环境型三类政策工具。选取2015—2020年国泰安中小板数据,根据可持续发展理论选取相应的衡量指标对企业绩效进行了权重测算,并基于系统动力学原理构建了中小企业绩效系统模型。进一步,设计政策组合情景模拟“双创”三类政策工具中各政策组合模型的数值变化,根据每一类情景下的最优政策组合模式设计了政策力度变化方案。最后,基于中小企业绩效系统的仿真结果,从“双创”政策出台、政策配合以及政策实施等提出相关建议。

Starting from exploring the policy effect of China′s "entrepreneurship and innovation" policy on the performance of smes, this paper divides "entrepreneurship and innovation" policy into three types of "entrepreneurship and innovation" policy tools: supply, demand and environment based on the policy tool theory.This paper selects the data of small and medium sized board of CSMAR from 2015 to 2020,selects corresponding measurement indicators according to the theory of sustainable development to measure the weight of enterprise performance, and constructs the performance system model of SMEs based on the principle of system dynamics.Furthermore, the policy combination scenario is designed to simulate the numerical changes of the model under each policy combination in the three policy tools of policy, and the corresponding policy intensity change scheme is designed based on the optimal policy combination mode under each scenario.Finally, based on the simulation results of smes performance system, relevant suggestions are put forward from the introduction, coordination and implementation of it.