2001-2020年苏州市肺癌死亡变化趋势及预测分析

Change trend and prediction of lung cancer mortality in Suzhou in 2001-2020

目的探索苏州市肺癌死亡的流行病学变化趋势,运用ARIMA模型预测未来肺癌死亡情况,为肺癌防控策略的研究提供科学依据。方法采用年度变化百分比(APC)来分析2001—2020年肺癌死亡年度变化趋势,选择ARIMA最优模型对2021—2025年肺癌死亡率进行预测。结果苏州市2001—2020年肺癌年平均粗死亡率46.45/10万,标化死亡率23.51/10万;近二十年粗死亡率呈现上升趋势,标化死亡率呈下降趋势(APC_(粗率)=2.51%,APC_(标化率)=-0.78%,P<0.01)。肺癌标化死亡率男性是女性的3.22倍,45岁以上肺癌死亡随着年龄的增长而上升,但30~59岁年龄组死亡率呈现逐年下降趋势。ARIMA模型预测未来五年肺癌粗死亡率变化趋势趋于平缓。结论苏州市肺癌粗死亡率呈现上升趋势,但标化死亡率逐年下降,提示应当关注老年人肺癌防控工作,精准识别肺癌高危人群,开展健康宣传教育和生活方式干预,普及肺癌早期筛查工作。

Objective To explore the epidemiological characteristics and trend of lung cancer mortality in Suzhou,to predict the future lung cancer mortality by ARIMA model,and to provide a scientific basis for the research of lung cancer prevention and control strategy.Methods The annual change percentage(APC)was used to analyze the annual change trend of lung cancer mortality from 2001 to 2020,and the ARIMA optimal model was employed to predict the lung cancer mortality from 2021 to 2025.Results The average annual crude mortality of lung cancer in Suzhou from 2001 to 2020 was 46.45/100000,while the standardized mortality was 23.51/100000.In recent 20 years,the crude mortality showed an upward trend and the standardized mortality showed a downward trend(APC_(crude rate)=2.51%,APC_(standardized rate)=-0.78%,P<0.001).The standardized mortality of lung cancer in men was 3.22 times that in women.The mortality of lung cancer in people over 45 years old increased with the increase of age,but the mortality in the 30-59 years old group showed a downward trend year by year.ARIMA model predicted that the annual trend of lung cancer crude mortality will tend to be flat in the next five years.Conclusion The crude mortality rate of lung cancer in Suzhou shows an upward trend,while the standardized mortality rate decreases year by year,suggesting that we should pay attention to the prevention and control of lung cancer in the elderly,accurately identify high-risk population of lung cancer,promote health publicity and education,carry out lifestyle intervention,and popularize the early screening of lung cancer.