沂河流域山东段径流演变特征及影响因素分析

Analysis of Runoff Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Factors in Shandong Section of Yihe River Basin

本文在介绍趋势检验法、突变检验法、周期分析法、双累积曲线法以及径流变化因素贡献识别法的基础上,以沂河流域山东段为研究对象,进行了径流量演变特征及影响因素分析。从径流趋势、径流突变和径流周期等方面分析了沂河流域径流量变化的历史特征;从降水趋势、降水突变和降水周期等方面分析了沂河流域降水量变化的历史特征;从不同时段径流量与降水量的变化特征、降水量和人类活动的贡献率等方面分析了引起沂河流域径流量变化的影响因素。通过本文研究可知:1956-2016年沂河流域径流量与降水量总体呈现下降趋势;相比于降水量,在各个5年时段径流量的变化幅度更大,变化效果更为显著;1965-2016年降水量对沂河流域径流量增大的贡献率为61.76%,而人类活动的贡献率为38.24%。本文研究表明人类活动对沂河流域径流量的增大造成了较大影响。

Based on the introduction of trend test method,mutation test method,period analysis method,double cumulative curve method and runoff change factor contribution identification method,this paper takes the Shandong section of the Yihe River Basin as an example,analyzing the runoff evolution characteristics and influencing factors.The historical characteristics of runoff changes in the Yihe River Basin have been analyzed from the aspects of runoff trend,runoff mutation and runoff cycle.The historical characteristics of precipitation changes in the Yihe River Basin are analyzed from the aspects of precipitation trend,sudden change of precipitation and precipitation cycle.The influencing factors of the runoff change in the Yihe River Basin are analyzed from the variation characteristics of runoff and precipitation in different periods,and the contribution rate of precipitation and human activities.According to the research in this paper,from 1956 to 2016,the runoff and precipitation showed a decreasing trend.Compared with precipitation,the runoff has a greater range of changes in each 5-year period,and the effect of the change is more significant.The contribution rate of precipitation to the increase of runoff in the Yihe River Basin from 1965 to 2016 was 61.76%,and the contribution rate of human activities was 38.24%.It shows that human activities have a great impact on the increase in runoff of the Yihe River Basin.