限行政策下城市居民低碳出行意向

Urban residents’ low-carbon travel intention after implementation of driving restriction policy

为探究限行政策下影响城市居民低碳出行意向的因素及其相互作用机理,本文以计划行为理论和技术接受模型为基础,采用多指标多原因(MIMIC)模型构建了限行政策下城市居民低碳出行意向模型。采用行为偏好调查方法设计调查问卷,通过网络调查和现场调查获得637份有效样本,运用MIMIC模型进行实证检验。研究结果表明:政策态度、政策效果感知和问题感知对出行意向有直接的显著影响;政策态度和政策效果感知是中介变量,政策效果感知、主观规范通过影响政策态度进而影响出行意向,问题感知通过影响政策效果感知进而影响出行意向;潜在变量对限行后居民的低碳出行意向影响的总效应值从大到小依次排序为:政策效果感知、政策态度、问题感知、主观规范;社会经济属性是调节变量,能通过调节出行者的心理感知因素间接影响出行意向。研究结论可为交通管理部门提高限行政策效益、引导居民低碳出行提供理论支撑。

To explore the influencing factors and interaction mechanism of urban residents’ low-carbon travel intention after implementing the driving restriction policy,the multiple indicators multiple cause(MIMIC)model is developed to construct urban residents’ low-carbon travel intention model under the driving restriction policy,concerning the theory of planned behavior and technology acceptance model. The revealed preference(RP)survey was used to design the questionnaire,and 637 valid samples was obtained through network survey and field survey. Finally,the empirical test was conducted by the MIMIC model.The results show that policy attitude,policy effect perception and problem perception have a direct and significant impact on travel intention. Policy attitude and policy effect perception are mediating variables,and policy effect perception and subjective norms could indirectly affect travel intention through policy attitude,and problem perception could indirectly affect travel intention through policy effect perception.The total effect value of potential variables on urban residents’ low-carbon travel intention after implementing the driving restriction policy rank from large to small as policy effect perception,policy attitude,problem perception,and subjective norms. Socio-economic attributes are moderating variables,which can indirectly affect travel intention by adjusting travelers’ psychological perception factors. The research conclusions could provide the theoretical support for traffic management authorities to improve the efficiency of driving restriction policy and guide residents to low-carbon travel.