广东工程海域极值风速计算的YanMeng风场模型

Calculation of the extreme wind speed for offshore platforms in Guangdong based on the YanMeng wind field model

为提高我国东南沿海工程海域极值风速估计的可靠性,通过搭建YanMeng风场模型进行台风数值模拟,并与实测资料进行对比,验证了风场模型在我国东南沿海工程海域的可行性。随后根据CMA热带气旋最佳路径数据集对台风关键参数进行概率建模,利用Monte Carlo法模拟了工程海域1 000年时段的台风极值风速序列,根据Gumbel分布进行了50年一遇极值风速的推算。研究发现YanMeng风场模型模拟效果较好,文中结果可以作为广东沿海海上平台结构设计的参考依据。

Numerical simulation of typhoon is conducted based on the YanMeng wind field model and the results are compared with the measured data. The feasibility of the wind field model in the southeast coastal engineering sea area of China is verified. Afterward,the CMA’s tropical cyclone best-track dataset is statistically analyzed to fit the typhoon key parameters for probability density distributions. Monte Carlo simulation method is used to simulate the extreme wind speed series of typhoon in the project sea area in 1 000 years,and the extreme wind speed once for 50 years is calculated according to Gumbel distribution. It is found that the YanMeng wind field model simulation effect is good,and the results could be used as a reference basis for the structural design of coastal offshore platforms.