摘要
Understandinng how futurre climate chaange impacts glaciers is crrucial to suustainable water supplies aand water resource managements..A calibrated ddegree-day glaacier mass baalance model and a volume-aarea scaling approach wwere coupledd to quantitativeely assess thhe effect off future climate change onn the ice volume in thhe Beida RRiver catchment,Northeast TTibetan Plateeau.The ressults show that future mean mass loss off all glaciers will reach to 0.6628±0.058,00.676±0.058 aand 0.765±0.074×10^(8)m^(3)yr^(-1) under RCP 2.6,4.5 and 8.5,respectivvely,with 81%-996.2% ice voluume losses by the end off 21^(st) century.Fuuture mass balance tennds to be mmore negative unntil 2050 undder RCP 2.6,uuntil 2060 unnder RCP 4.5,annd until 21000 under RCPP 8.5.Glacierrs in the catchmment are likely experienciing or will soon experience the most inteense ice loss,,which may lead to negativee impact onn water resoources after the tipping poiint around 2015-2035.IIn the RCP 8.5 scenario,thhe summer mass balancee decreases with elevvation at the altitudinal beelt of 4650~55050 m a.s.l.duee to the variaation of elevaation structurre caused by acceelerating glaciers shrrinkage.Fuurther,the simulations aree sensitive tto the parammeterization scheme of glaccier area andd air tempeerature.The projjections havee the potentiaal to significanntly improve ourr understandiings of glacieer regime oveer data-poor regiions.
基金
funded by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program(STEP,Grant No.2019QZKK0201)
the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41801034)
the“Key Research Programs in Frontier Sciences”of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(QYZDY-SSW-DQC003)
the Basic Research Program of Shanxi Province(202203021211258,20210302123248)
the Open Research Fund of Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environmental Changes and Land Surface Processes,Chinese Academy of Sciences(TEL201801)。
