粮食安全战略下中国稻谷增产潜力与实现

Potential and Realization of Rice Yield Increase in China under Food Security Strategy

民为国基,谷为民命,新发展阶段中国提出实施粮食安全战略,明确了中国要“确保谷物基本自给,口粮绝对安全”的发展战略。文章基于R语言分析软件,利用自回归单整移动平均模型,选取1949—2020年中国稻谷总产、播种面积以及单位面积产量数据,预测分析2021—2030年中国稻谷总产、播种面积以及单位面积产量。研究结果表明:2021—2030年中国稻谷总产基本保持平衡、播种面积有轻微的增减且幅度波动不大、单位面积产量有所增加,但增幅较缓,在2021—2030年中国稻谷产量能够确保基本自给。为进一步保障中国粮食安全,还需加大对水稻生产政策支持,树立红线意识,合理利用水土资源,加强科技投入,促进国内稻谷稳产、增产,维护国家粮食安全。

The people are the foundation of the country,and the grain is the life of the people.In the new stage of development,my country has put forward the implementation of the food security strategy,which has clarified the development strategy of"ensuring basic self-sufficiency of grains and absolute security of rations".Based on the R language analysis software,this paper uses the autoregressive single integral moving average model to select my country’s total rice production,sown area,and yield per unit area data from 1949 to 2020,and predict and analyze my country’s total rice output,sown area and output data from 2021 to 2030.Yield per unit area.The research results show that:from 2021 to 2030,my country’s total rice output will remain balanced,the sown area will increase or decrease slightly with little fluctuation,and the yield per unit area will increase,but the increase is slow.ensure basic self-sufficiency.In order to further ensure my country’s food security,it is necessary to increase policy support for my country’s rice production,establish red line awareness,rationally use water and soil resources,strengthen scientific and technological investment,promote stable and increased rice production in my country,and maintain national food security.