货币政策对中国风险投资市场的影响——风险投资复杂网络结构的调节效应

The Impact of Monetary Policy on China’s Venture Capital Market:The Moderating Effect of Venture Capital Complex Network Structure

风险投资机构通过投资具有发展潜力的早期创业企业,对于国家的技术创新和产业升级、促进经济的高质量发展起到了重要作用.然而,我国风险投资市场尚不完善,市场主体之间存在着复杂的交互和关联,相关政策在实施的过程中具有较大的不确定性.本文尝试从一个全新的视角,即通过构建风险投资机构联合投资的复杂网络,计算网络结构的时序指标:网络密度、网络韧性和财富聚集效应,对复杂的政策影响因素进行测算.在此基础上,通过实证分析,系统性地研究了货币政策对风险投资行业发展的影响,以及网络结构特征的调节作用.结果表明,货币政策能够显著促进风险投资行业规模的发展,并且网络结构特征对货币政策的影响有显著的调节作用.此外,本文还发现货币政策还能通过影响网络结构特征,间接影响风险投资的市场规模.本文的研究结果对于政府合理精准制定货币政策、减小政策不确定性具有重要的参考价值.

Venture capital institutions have played an important role in technological innovation and industrial upgrading,as well as promoting high-quality economic development by investing in early-stage entrepreneurial enterprises.However,China’s venture capital market has not been well-developed,where there are complex interactions and correlations between market entities,which results in great uncertainties in the implementation of relevant policies.This paper attempts to construct a complex network of joint investment between venture capital institutions,and calculate the time series indicators of network structure:network density,network robustness and wealth accumulation effect,in order to measure the complex factors of macro policies.After that,through empirical analysis,this paper systematically studies the impact of monetary policy on the development of venture capital industry and the moderating effect of network structure characteristics.The results show that monetary policy significantly promotes the development of venture capital industry,and network structure characteristics have a significant moderating effect on the impact of monetary policy.In addition,this paper finds that monetary policy indirectly affects the market size of venture capital by influencing network structure characteristics.The research results of this paper may offer unique insights for the government to make reasonable and accurate monetary policy and reduce policy uncertainty.