产业结构变迁、人口红利与中国经济增长——基于改进转换份额法的实证分析

Change of Industrial Structure,Demographic Dividend and China’s Economic Growth——Based on the Method of Shift-share Analysis

改革开放40年来,中国产业结构、人口结构和经济增长都发生了巨大的变化。本文通过改进转换份额分析法,分析产业结构变迁、人口红利对经济增长的作用。研究结果表明,1978—2005年间我国的产业结构、人口红利与技术进步对经济增长基本都是正向促进作用;2005年之后,人口红利的直接作用开始转为负向,出现人口老龄化的征兆;2015年以后,以第三产业就业份额扩大为特征的产业结构变迁开始抑制经济增长,技术进步成为推动经济增长的唯一动力。因此,政府应当重视产业结构的调整以促进经济持续增长,大力发展生产性服务业和高端制造业,将发展重点放在第三产业中生产性服务业。同时注重培养生产性服务业和高端制造业的专业性人才,重视中老年人力资源的运用,充分利用第二次人口红利。

Over the past 40 years of reform and opening up,China’s industrial structure,demographic structure and economic growth have undergone tremendous changes.Improve the Shift-share Analysis method and use it to analyze the effect of industrial structure change and demographic dividend on economic growth.The study found that the changes of industrial structure,demographic dividend and technological progress in China’s economy have basically positive effects on economic growth from 1978 to 2005.After 2005,the role of demographic dividend began to turn negative,showing signs of population aging.After 2015,the industrial structure change characterized by the expansion of employment share of the tertiary industry began to restrain economic growth,technological progress has become the sole driving force for economic growth.Therefore,the government should attach importance to the adjustment of industrial structure to promote sustained economic growth,vigorously develop Producer services and high-end manufacturing,and lay emphasis on producer services in the tertiary industry.At the same time,the government should pay attention to the training of professional talents in producer services and high-end manufacturing and use of middle-aged and elderly human resources,make full use of the second demographic dividend.